2024 game spending down 2% is Circana analyst's "most optimistic" outlook

13.03.2024 - 15:01 / gamesindustry.biz / Mat Piscatella

When GamesIndustry.biz reports on Circana, it's usually the tracking firm's reports on US consumer spending in the past month. But when we speak with Circana analyst Mat Piscatella, out first question is about what he sees happening in the months to come.

"Right now my most optimistic outlook is down about 2%," Piscatella says. "If you start looking a little bit on the more pessimistic side, you're looking at down about 10%. If things really go sideways, you're looking at a little bit more.

"There's so much uncertainty when you look at the sales data or look to project this year. There's uncertainty around the hardware. There's uncertainty about the content. Who the hell's making the games?"

He notes that the two biggest games of the year to date – Helldivers 2 and Palworld – didn't quite come out of nowhere, but they were "neighbors to nowhere."

"Helldivers 2 and Palworld have done a lot of heavy lifting early in the year, but we're up against a comp last year with Hogwarts Legacy, which was a massive hit," Piscatella says. "So we need another game on top of Helldivers and Palworld to try to comp what Hogwarts was doing last year, and it's still doing a year later."

It doesn't help that there are few obvious blockbusters coming down the pipe. Grand Theft Auto 6 is 2025, the Switch successor was reportedly pushed to next year as well, and Sony doesn't have any first-party blockbusters for the next year. And Piscatella doesn't think their absence automatically lends itself to games like Helldivers 2 and Palworld stepping up to play the role of blockbuster.

"The uncertainty level this year is probably the highest I can recall – and I've been around since 2005 – with the uncertainty of what's going to get us to the finish line because we don't have those big games announced that we know," Piscatella says. "When people are saying 'our slate's going to be light this year,' that's not something that usually happens."

He also wouldn't count on mid-generation refreshes for the Xbox Series X|S and/or PS5 to save anything.

"Are those happening? I don't know," he says. "I'm under a billion NDAs and no one's told me, so I don't know."

Even if Microsoft and Sony do roll out hardware revisions, such offerings don't tend to have much of a halo effect.

"What they're best at doing is bridging," Piscatella says. "It really helps boost the average selling price. You're not building the install based significantly, you're just helping the ASPs and your profitability a little bit. It's a first-party play, a manufacturing play more than it is a consumer boost.

"You'll get a lot of the very dedicated audience picking up a second one or they'll upgrade and pass along their older system to family, friends or sell it, but you don't see