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After a Groundbreaking 2023, Gartner Lays Out Strategic Predictions for 2024
17.10.2023 - 21:01 / pcmag.com
Though this was the year "everything changed," Gartner Fellow Leigh McMullen was looking to the future at this week's Gartner Symposium, laying out the company's strategic predictions for 2024.
These are different than Gartner's annual list of strategic trends, and are historically a bit less certain. McMullen noted that a little over a year ago, he hosted a keynote that showed AI versus AI and some people thought it was too futuristic. Then ChatGPT came in November, and suddenly everyone was interested.
McMullen started by asking generative AI to come up with some predictions and compared the results with Gartner's own predictions. Most of the room could guess which was which, but it was close. Here are this year's predictions, which he divided into three categories, focusing on generative AI making people better, businesses overcoming their worst traits, and new threats creating new responsibilities
By 2026, AI makes us seem better than we are. By then, Gartner predicts that 30% of workers will leverage digital charisma filters to achieve previously unattainable advances in their careers. McMullen used Instagram filters as an earlier example, but also talked about filters that can do things like make you look like you are always looking at the camera, are thinner, and speak a different language.
By 2026, Gartner predicts the productivity value of AI will be recognized as a primary economic indicator of national power. McMullen said China's big advantage has been the number of people they have, but AI can change that, allowing smaller areas to have more influence.
By 2027, 25% of Fortune 500 companies will actively recruit neurodiverse talent across conditions like autism, ADHD, and dyslexia to improve business performance. You can't tell neurodiverse people by looking at them, but having different skills sets and viewpoints can be a "superpower," he said. This doesn't mean transferring privilege from one group to another, but just allowing everyone to be who they are.
By 2026, 50% of G20 members will experience monthly electricity rationing, turning energy-aware operations into either a competitive advantage or a major failure risk. McMullen talked about the rolling blackouts he experienced in Texas, or the blackouts that occurred in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He noted that Walmart and Target are among the biggest solar panel owners in the world, because this is so important. AI will use even more power, and he said he believes that ChatGPT alone consumes the same electricity as 33,000 houses a day. Thinking about these problems can give our organizations a strategic advantage, he said.
By 2027, GenAI tools will be used to explain legacy business applications and create
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